Saturday, July 26, 2008

Emerging markets are no haven from woe

The Brics are not decoupling from the global economy, they are crumbling, their stock markets tumbling like dominoes as the woe of Wall Street's bankers infects the world with gloom.

The Pollyannas said that it couldn't happen, that the world was somehow different, that emerging markets were not just saplings but giant oaks - billions of dynamic new consumers would shrug off the burden of uncreditworthy and lazy Yankees and Europeans.

The truth is out, if you believe markets: the Shanghai stock market plunged 7 per cent yesterday, adding to Monday's 5 per cent fall. Trading was suspended in Bombay as the BSE Sensex index dived almost 10percent. At its Tuesday close, the Indian market had lost a fifth of its value since the Sensex peaked on January 8.

Funds are evaporating - market players expect a reduction in foreign investment, the big driver of growth in the Bric economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Slower economies mean smaller profits for stock market investors. Meanwhile, the risk honeymoon enjoyed by the Brics - markets in Russia and China surged on regardless during the initial months of the credit crisis - is over. Investors are fleeing high-yielding Asian bonds in search of safety. In London, the long gilt future surged to a record.



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