Friday, April 17, 2009

The Greatest Company in the History of the World

The greatest
Meet the world's greatest company: ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM). Biggest, strongest, most efficient, most evil -- there's hardly a superlative that hasn't been said about this most successful of the Standard Oil grandchildren. But while much is made of just how great or how evil folks peg Exxon to be, there's strangely little discussion over the core drivers of why its stock has been a huge success.

It would be easy to say that Exxon's success and that of Standard Oil's other grandchildren -- Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, etc. -- was just a function of their being in the right place at the right time. Hawking oil and gasoline at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, after all, is a Category 5 tailwind.

But there's much more to Exxon's success. And, fortunately, those discernable traits are ones we can spot in other opportunities.

1. An owner-operator culture
John Rockefeller didn't run an infamously efficient organization just for kicks -- as the largest shareholder, he had a vested interest in the success of Standard Oil. When managers and employees are shareholders alongside you, they share your desire for the business to be managed for the long term.

Take a look at the cutthroat world of discount retail, where a fanatical focus on controlling costs and smart growth are crucial to long-term success. Which companies in this space have proven among the biggest winners for investors over the past 20 years? None other than Costco and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). Both are known as much for their insider ownership as for their tenacious zeal for efficiency and delivering value to customers.

And, by the way, there's still plenty of alignment between Exxon's leadership and outside shareholders. The company consistently posts better margins and returns on capital than its Big Oil brethren. CEO and Chairman Rex Tillerson has plenty of incentive to keep it that way -- he owns 1.1 million Exxon shares.

2. Enduring demand
Demand for oil is strikingly consistent. For most companies, steady demand equates to steady cash generation. But just as importantly for Exxon as the consistent demand for oil is the lasting nature of that demand. Constant doubt over the staying power of oil has helped keep Exxon's shares perpetually undervalued, allowing Exxon and dividend reinvestors to consistently gobble up shares at attractive prices.

Back to the importance of demand. Consider Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), which I recently recommended to our Income Investor members. P&G's core products (razor blades, toilet paper, disposable diapers, etc.) all face little chance of technological obsolescence. Even better, demand is regular and firmly entrenched. Maybe I'm just a pretty boy, but I'd be living in my car before I stopped buying razors.

Now consider a company whose fate hinges on innovation: Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). Sure, there's a lot to love about Apple, but long-term demand for its products is downright unknowable, if for no other reason than we've no idea what Apple will even be selling years from now.

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