Thursday, January 10, 2013

Unintended consequences of Japan's monetary easing


Voltaire, the famous French historian and philosopher has a famous quote to his credit, "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---- zero." The way central bankers and governments have been devaluing their currencies, Voltaire's insight may indeed be validated sometime in the future. The US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has received enough brickbats for his reckless money printing exercises. In recent times, Japan has been receiving a lot of attention, albeit for all the wrong reasons.
The newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seems ready to pull the accelerator on fiscal stimulus. And he also seems keen to control monetary policy by taking away the independence of Bank of Japan. His moves are directed towards ending Japan's decade-long fight with deflation. Export-oriented economies generally prefer to devalue their currencies to boost exports. But will a depreciating yen help the Japanese economy to bounce back? An article in Business Insider puts forth some serious doubts. For one, a depreciating yen does not have the same export-boosting power that it used to have earlier. On the other hand, a weaker yen will raise the prices of everyday necessities. This, in turn, would lower the real incomes of the Japanese people. It is worth noting that Japan has a significant aging population and relies heavily on imports of food, clothing, and energy.

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