Tuesday, July 15, 2014

UNION BUDGET - KEY TAKEAWAYS

1-CONSUMER Sector (FMCG)

   Higher than expected excise duty on
cigarettes

Defensive stocks continue to remain
expensive

2-METALS

   Upward revision in royalty rates – not a
surprise, was already due

Levy of import duty on coking coal, met
coke to marginally impact companies

Increase in export duty on Bauxite from
10% to 20%, positive for aluminium
manufacturers without captive bauxite

Intent to resolve iron ore mining issues
quickly – positive for steel producers


3-HEALTHCARE

Not much announced in the budget

The government is focusing on
healthcare, regulatory and research
infrastructure, rural penetration and
health for all

Positive for domestic growth over the
medium to long term

US opportunity remains very positive
along with revival in domestic
formulations

US patent cliff to benefit pharma
companies and domestic formulations
could also do well going forward 

4-AUTOS

   The increase in Sec 80CC benefit and
hike in IT slabs may lead to more
disposable income (marginally positive
for two wheelers and entry segment cars)

Excise duty benefit had already been
extended till Dec’14 before the budget

We remain positive on passenger vehicles
and medium and heavy commercial
vehicles (M&HCVs)

Resolution of mining issues should
increase demand for M&HCVs

Recovery in economic growth would lead
to a revival in demand (already visible in
June auto numbers) 


5-OIL & GAS

   We expect major policy announcements
for the sector to come in the next few
quarters

Decision awaited on gas pricing
framework and actual roadmap on
reducing oil subsidies further

Broad guidelines discussed in the budget
are positive, in our view – the need to
overhaul the fuel subsidy regime
including targeted subsidies, emphasis
on raising natural gas penetration,
harnessing unconventional gas
production and reviving production from
mature/shut E&P wells 

6-FERTILIZER

   New urea policy to be announced.
However, the timelines are not clear.

We expect the higher budgetary support
to trickle down to the small and marginal
farmers; improving their ability to afford
high yielding variety seeds, fertilizers,
crop protection chemicals and irrigation
equipments

7-FINANCIALS

PSU bank re-capitalization would be
positive. More clarity awaited. Banks will
need roughly Rs 2,40,000 crore
(US$40bn) by 2018 to meet Basel-III
requirements

Infra lending: Banks will be permitted to
raise long term funds for lending to the
infrastructure sector with minimum
regulatory pre-emption

FDI in insurance increased from 26% to
49%

Debt recovery tribunals (DRT): Six new
debt recovery tribunals to be set up. This
is a positive and will speed up recovery of
bad loans

Housing Loans: Increased interest
deduction on housing loans to Rs200,000
from Rs150,000. Positive: will reduce
interest burden on the consumer. To
illustrate this, for a Rs2mn loan the
effective interest cost (after tax savings)
would decline from 6% to 5.2% 


8-TELECOM

   10% customs duty on high end telecom
equipment is a negative for telcos

9-INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

   No specific announcements in the
budget

The sector may continue to benefit from a
global recovery and increased
discretionary spend in the US/Europe

Stronger rupee could pose a risk to
margins in the medium term

10-CAP GOODS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE/
REAL ESTATE

   Focus on roads (8500 KM in FY 2015) and
allocation of Rs. 37,500 cr. (27000 cr. last
year)

Power: 10 year tax holiday extended till
March 2017

Defense: Capital outlay for defense
increased by 20% to Rs. 95,000 cr.

FDI in defense raised to 49% with Indian
management control

Development of airports in tier 1 and 2
cities via PPP route

Business Trusts to benefit the sector as
companies could monetize income
generating assets

Real Estate: REIT will be positive for the
construction/Real estate sector  

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