Yes Bank, a private bank incorporated in 2003, is promoted and led by Mr. Rana Kapoor, who is currently the MD & CEO of the bank. Yes Bank has
steadily built a full-service commercial bank with Corporate, Retail and SME Banking platforms, with a comprehensive product suite. It was the first bank to offer differentiated rates on savings account following RBI's deregulation of savings account rates in October 2011. The number of branches and ATMs stood at 964 and 1,757 respectively.
Latest Results
Yes Bank's strong operational performance for the December quarter should for now allay concerns over asset quality divergence flagged by the RBI audit. Well-capitalised after the latest round of fund raising, Yes Bank is gaining market share, building a strong deposit franchise, and increasing exposure to better quality corporate and retail assets.
Valued at 2.9X FY19 book, Yes Bank has a strong earnings growth trajectory ahead. But for the stock to get re-rated, Yes Bank would require a more balanced asset mix (in favour of retail) and a clean chit from RBI in the next audit.
Strong performance
Profit-after-tax grew 22 percent and pre-provision profit, 38 percent. Growth in net interest income (difference between interest income and interest expenses) at 26.8 percent was helped by a stable net interest margin at 3.5 percent and robust 46.5 percent growth in advances.
The non-interest income growth too was a healthy 40 percent driven by a big increase in core fees. Provisions jumped sharply as the bank may have created additional buffer against SR (security receipts against assets sold to Asset Reconstruction Companies) and taken steps towards having a provision cover of 60 percent in the next couple of years. While cost was well-contained, the bank targets to achieve a much better cost to income ratio in the future.
The 20 basis points sequential reduction in interest margin was attributed to the bank raising Rs 9,415 crore quasi capital (including Tier II bonds) that are much costlier than the bank’s overall cost of funds (nevertheless improved its capital adequacy). Part of the decline was also attributed to Security Receipts. Net Security Receipts (SRs) for Yes stood at 1.06 percent of gross advances with a net increase in the quarter of Rs 421.9 Crores.
Business showing traction
The bank has been aggressive in capturing market share. Advances rose 46.5 percent and Yes Bank now has close to 7 percent share in incremental advances. Going forward, the focus would be on improving the share of non-corporate, especially retail.
The bank has been able to compete in the market, thanks to the low-cost liability profile it is building up steadily. While overall deposits grew by 29.7 percent, the low-cost CASA (Current & Savings account) deposits grew by 48 percent and constitute 38 percent of total deposits. The bank has close to 9.5 percent share in the incremental deposits of the system. The bank is eyeing CASA ratio of 40 percent before September 2018.
Confident of achieving 4 percent interest margin
Thanks to the strength of the low-cost liability, Yes Bank has been able to maintain stable margins even as stiff competition has been eroding yield on advances.
The bank is eyeing 4 percent net interest margin as it takes the low-cost deposits share to a formidable level of 40 percent. This is all the more helpful, especially in a rising rate environment. Since the bank offers close to 6 percent on its savings account (compared to 3.5 percent of most banks) there is headroom to reduce costs there. Finally, Yes Bank expects to earn better as it originates more of its own priority sector lending (PSL) loans than the predominant buyout that it had done in the past.
Asset quality “ awaiting the clean chit?
The bank has embarked on a journey to incrementally de-risk its book which is also reflected in the falling lending yield. Over 75 percent of the corporate portfolio is now rated “A†or above with a well-diversified sectoral composition.
While the reported NPL (non-performing loan) picture looks better in the quarter, we would like to monitor the slippage closely as that number has not fallen significantly.
In the quarter, out of the total slippage of Rs 495 crore - Rs 245.4 crores was from accounts previously classified under SDR and NCLT categories.
A recap on divergence
Riding on the strength of its superior loan structuring skills, the bank had only taken a small quantum (Rs 1219 crore) of the latest round of divergence of Rs 6355 crore into gross NPA in the last quarter.
Close to 47 percent (Rs 2977 crore) of the divergence had been classified as standard assets by the bank. In this quarter, Yes Bank reported nil slippage into NPA for accounts classified as Standard with significant principal loan repayments and with no interest overdue.
If we were to monitor all known troubled exposure (under various dispensation like restructured, SDR etc., outstanding SR and RBI divergence classified as standard assets) the quantum is close to Rs 5500 crore “ 3.2 percent of advances. With the incremental better quality of growth, the problem, therefore isn't going to impact financial performance meaningfully. However, to establish credibility of its numbers, the clean chit from RBI is important.
While we do see provision remaining elevated especially as the bank has set a target to achieve 60 percent cover within the next few quarters, the earnings momentum should enable the same.
The next round of inspection is for FY18 (which is at least a good 9 months from now). We do not see any imminent near term uncertainty. The bank is well-capitalised (Capital adequacy of 19.5 percent), steadily capturing market share in advances and building a solid low-cost liability franchise.
With the systemic NPL resolution moving into high gear, we are staring at an end of the bad asset cycle. The recapitalisation of PSU banks and resolution of bad assets should pave the way for recovery of the capex cycle that stands to benefit most corporate lenders including Yes Bank. The bank has already guided to a strong momentum. Hence at 2.9X FY19 book Yes Bank will remain a candidate to look at for its long road to profitable growth ahead.
3QFY18 conference call highlights
Asset quality
Overall sensitive sector exposure has come down to 7.1% (iron and steel is 2%;Telecom is 2.3% v/s 3.9% a quarter ago).
The bank guided that ~30-40% of SRs will be recovered in next 15 months.
One standard account of INR4.21b was sold to an ARC.
Repayment on RBI divergence account has been due to change in management.
In other cases, repayment has been due to improvement in operational cash
flows.
P/L related
Corporate fees in terms of IFRS: 40-50% of the fees will be subject to amortization, but also last year’s amortized fees will recognized. Net impact will thus be lower.
Loan yields have fallen as new loans are showing lower risks, and thus, lending rates are also lower.
Balance-sheet related
Impact on margins due to two reasons: a) About 10bp reduction in NIM due to perpetual bonds (which will be part of capital under IFRS) amounting to INR54.5b at 9%; and AT1 bonds also raised INR40b of tier 2 capital at 7.8% (market rate ~8.4%). b) ~10bp impact on NIM from SR/NPA portfolio.
Going forward, biggest contributor to improvement in NIM will be CASA.
The bank is working on making PSLC book self-sufficient and focusing on organic growth.
The bank targets taking retail banking to 40% of total book by FY20. For retail growth, the focus is not just on PSLC lending, but also on organic growth. PSLC would accrete as a byproduct to normal retail lending.
Up to 20% of growth is self- funded. The bank hinted to a discussion in April 2018 about raising capital.
CD ratio has gone up due to high borrowings (capital planning) and that has hurt margins due to higher cost.
Business updates
The bank is adding ~10m SA customers every month, which is helping with cross-sell of other products. YES Securities is also helping them cross-sell.
Valuation and view
As per Motilal Oswal Securities Report on Yes Bank:
With the continued investment in franchise, people and processes, YES is well positioned to leverage on to the opportunity that Indian economy presents.
Bank has strong capitalization (CET1 of ~10.7%), branch network has increased to 1,050 v/s 430 in FY13.
Comfortable liquidity, low inflation and bulk deposit rate is a significant positive for YES from NIMs (higher short term liabilities) and bond gains perspective (~9% share of corporate bonds in customer assets). Further bank has room to reduce savings deposits rate leading to stability over margins.
Stable/improving NIM and traction in fees will keep core PPP/ earnings CAGR strong at ~33%/28%
over FY17/20E despite strong investments in building liability franchise.
With an incremental market share of 3.5%+, aggressive roll-out of retail/SME products and strong corporate relationships, YES is expected to register loan CAGR (FY17-20) of 32% – at least 2x of system loan growth.
YES has a well-laid strategy for growing small business loans (most of which qualify as priority sector loans) and cross-selling to acquired customers which would help granular retail fees growth. On balance-sheet front, initial focus of the bank will be on growing the liability side first and as customer relationships age, focus would be on cross-selling its retail assets. The bank has been
expanding its branch network at an increasing pace.
The stock trades at 2.6x FY19 BV and 14.2x FY19 EPS.
Reiterate Buy with a target price of INR410 (2.7x Mar 2020 ABV) – based on residual income model
(Average growth of ~17% over FY17-37E, Terminal growth of 5%, 13.7% cost of
equity – risk free rate of 7%, beta of 1.34, and 5% market risk premium.
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