India says carbon emissions to soar by 2030

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's greenhouse gas emissions are expected to jump to between 4 billion tonnes and 7.3 billion tonnes in 2031 but the Asian power's rapid economic growth will be sustainable, a government-backed report said on Wednesday.

Per-capita emissions are estimated to rise to 2.1 tonnes by 2020 and 3.5 tonnes by 2030, according to a government-funded study by five different organisations, including environmental groups and the management consultancy firm, McKinsey.

The report did not give a figure for present emission levels but Indian climate negotiators say per-capita emissions are 1.2 tonnes at present. India's population is 1.1 billion but is expected to grow to more than 1.5 billion in coming decades.

"It's not a do-nothing strategy," Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh told reporters.

"Embedded in the model are various assumptions of efficiency improvement. The per-capita principle is the only globally recognised measure of equity," he said.

The report is the nation's most sweeping emissions summary and its release comes months before a major U.N. climate gathering in Copenhagen aimed at trying to win agreement on a broader pact to fight climate.

The emissions projections highlight India's growing role as a key player in the U.N.-led climate negotiations on a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol and the need to include big developing nations in global efforts to curb planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.

"The structure of the economy, policy and regulatory regime and energy endowment together ensure that India's growth over the next two decades, while rapid, would remain inherently sustainable," the report said.