One of Benjamin Graham's most famous quotes goes thus: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine." That is indeed so true. In the short to medium term, share markets may witness wide irrational swings. But in the long run, share market valuations tend to reflect the true fundamentals.
How do share markets function in the short to medium term? It is important to understand that stock prices usually reflect the future expectations of market participants from the real economy. It may so happen that a bull run commences months before earnings actually show an improvement. Similar, markets may start falling even before earnings show any deterioration. Of course, it is impossible to determine the lead and lag time in such cases. Moreover, the market expectations may not always translate into reality. On many occasions markets are prone to false anticipation.
Do you know one crucial factor that plays an instrumental role in all market rallies and collapses? The answer is financial liquidity. When there's a lot of money into the financial system, bubbles can build up. The opposite is also quite true. A liquidity crunch can bring down markets even when economic fundamentals are strong. But in a globalised world, it is difficult to judge liquidity. FII (foreign institutional investors) money can pour in and flee away at the drop of a hat. A remotely unrelated event in some other part of the world could have an impact on the domestic bourses.
With such wild swings in the share markets, what should investors do? In our view, the value investing technique followed by the likes of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, etc. is the best approach to long term investing. Buy fundamentally strong stocks at a discount. Forget where markets are headed. Period!
But it is also true that value investing may not help you in timing your investments too well. And you may also miss out several profitable opportunities in the short to medium. To remedy this, many investors prefer to complement their value investing approach with techniques that help understand market trends and time entry and exits.
How do share markets function in the short to medium term? It is important to understand that stock prices usually reflect the future expectations of market participants from the real economy. It may so happen that a bull run commences months before earnings actually show an improvement. Similar, markets may start falling even before earnings show any deterioration. Of course, it is impossible to determine the lead and lag time in such cases. Moreover, the market expectations may not always translate into reality. On many occasions markets are prone to false anticipation.
Do you know one crucial factor that plays an instrumental role in all market rallies and collapses? The answer is financial liquidity. When there's a lot of money into the financial system, bubbles can build up. The opposite is also quite true. A liquidity crunch can bring down markets even when economic fundamentals are strong. But in a globalised world, it is difficult to judge liquidity. FII (foreign institutional investors) money can pour in and flee away at the drop of a hat. A remotely unrelated event in some other part of the world could have an impact on the domestic bourses.
With such wild swings in the share markets, what should investors do? In our view, the value investing technique followed by the likes of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, etc. is the best approach to long term investing. Buy fundamentally strong stocks at a discount. Forget where markets are headed. Period!
But it is also true that value investing may not help you in timing your investments too well. And you may also miss out several profitable opportunities in the short to medium. To remedy this, many investors prefer to complement their value investing approach with techniques that help understand market trends and time entry and exits.
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